I'm posting my recent e-mail to President Barack Obama sent on July 1st, 2009, just to have it on record.
Dear Mr. President:
I urge you to support the new Micheletti government in Honduras. ex-President Zelaya was clearly acting contrary to that country's constitution in a Chavez-like bid to undo term limits and install himself president for life. Your action has clearly shown your first loyalty is to the Left. You are acting in contravention of more than 50 years of policy in the Americas. You can hide behind any language you choose. I heard your State Department calling the referendum merely a "survey." There is no way to translate "referéndum" or "vota" to "estudio" or "encuesta" (survey). It is a pure prevarication. As president you must take a larger view beyond your narrow political ideology; you have a solemn obligation to act on behalf of the American people despite you personal bias towards the Left. Please reverse course.
Sincerely,
Greg Contreras, Miami, FL
Monday, July 06, 2009
Friday, May 01, 2009
Curiouser and Curiouser: Mexican Press Now Says Felipe Solis (Art Guy Who Greeted Obama) Died of a Heart Attack, not the Flu
According to La Jornada and other sources, Felipe Solis, died of a heart attack, not the flu and on the 22nd or 23rd of April, not the 16th/17th as reported by Bloomberg and the U.K. Independent.
Not that's it's that big of a deal, but why all the misinformation on Obama's trip, the advance team, et cetera?
As they say: developing...
El Informador
La Jornada
Not that's it's that big of a deal, but why all the misinformation on Obama's trip, the advance team, et cetera?
As they say: developing...
El Informador
La Jornada
We're all Greedy Speculators Now:
Happy Workers Day Comrade!
In case no one noticed, Obama blamed the lack of a deal to keep Chrysler out of bankruptcy on a small group of greedy speculators. We're all speculators now....These speculators, who by law, had first priority to Chrysler's assets in bankruptcy.
Also, Does Janet Napolitano remind anybody of another crack Governor like....wait for it.... Kathleen Blanco?
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Buy a Car from a Company Owned by a Socialist Gov't and the UAW?
Paul Ingrassia at the Wall Street Journal points out that the GM deal would put the Obama administration and the UAW in the driver's seat at GM with a combined 90% interest.
The problems with that are legion, first of all is the issue of fairness to other car companies, Ford, Toyota, BMW, etc. who don't have such a deep pocketed parent.
I wonder if Americans would countenance such blatant lack of fairness. As much as I like what GM is producing now, but I would never support an anti-competitive situation like that.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Analysis Shows Asian, European and U.S. Sources in Swine Flu
April 28, 2009 update
An analysis of the the phylogenic tree (the component strains) present in the current swine flu cases in Texas and California show no identifiable components of Mexican origin.
The H1 protein (hemagglutinin) shows evidence from past cases from Korea, China and Turkey as well as Indiana, Minnesota, Ohio and Kansas.
The N1 protein (neuraminidase) shows evidence of having come from China, Hong Kong, Mongolia, Hokkaido, Japan, Chonburi and Chachoengsao (Thailand) and Italy.
Figure 1 shows the phylogenic tree of the H1 protein (hemagglutinin) of the U.S. strain of the current influenza virus.
Figure 2 shows the phylogenic tree of the N1 protein (neuraminidase) of the current U.S. strain. Both figures show the complex origins of the virus.
Both figures have been analyzed using data the GISAID Epiflu database Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID)
April 27, 2009
Nature and independent reporting
Analysis and Commentary on the Phylogenic Tree of Current U.S. Swine Flu Cases
Researchers are puzzled over the origins and spread of the current H1N1 human borne influenza and that has health officials around the world worried.
The current virus mixes an existing triple combination of human, avian and swine influenza identified in 1998 with two new swine virus genes from Asia and Europe, both of human origin.
Because of its novelty, humans are unlikely to have any immunity to it. The current seasonal flu vaccine targets a different H1N1 strain and isn't likely to offer any protection.
Indeed, according to a report in Recombinomics, March 24, 2009, the failure rate of the H1N1 virus seen in Rapid City, South Dakota was as much as 50% among those vaccinated for influenza. It's not clear whether those new virus cases, as the instant virus was only sent for classification in mid-March.
"The genetics are quite complicated," says Dr. John McCauley of London's National Institute for Medical Research. "It has been mixing up all over the place."
Dr. Robert Webster at St Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis calls it "...a real super-mixed-up virus," adding, "where the hell it got all these genes from we don't know."
So far, 149 people have died in Mexico, with 1,600 suspected cases. 40 cases have been confirmed in the United States, as well in Spain, Canada and the U.K.
Health experts contend that the virus is treatable with the influenza drugs oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza).
Late today, the WHO raised its pandemic threat from phase 3 to phase 4, suggesting "sustained human-to-human transmission," Phases 5 & 6 represent a full-blown pandemic.
"The scary thing is that this virus seems enormously transmissible," says Dr. Webster.
Dr. McCauley adds, "For me this is the time to start deploying national pandemic plans — we need to act now."
An analysis of the the phylogenic tree (the component strains) present in the current swine flu cases in Texas and California show no identifiable components of Mexican origin.
The H1 protein (hemagglutinin) shows evidence from past cases from Korea, China and Turkey as well as Indiana, Minnesota, Ohio and Kansas.
The N1 protein (neuraminidase) shows evidence of having come from China, Hong Kong, Mongolia, Hokkaido, Japan, Chonburi and Chachoengsao (Thailand) and Italy.
Figure 1 shows the phylogenic tree of the H1 protein (hemagglutinin) of the U.S. strain of the current influenza virus.
Figure 2 shows the phylogenic tree of the N1 protein (neuraminidase) of the current U.S. strain. Both figures show the complex origins of the virus.
Both figures have been analyzed using data the GISAID Epiflu database Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID)
April 27, 2009
Nature and independent reporting
Analysis and Commentary on the Phylogenic Tree of Current U.S. Swine Flu Cases
Researchers are puzzled over the origins and spread of the current H1N1 human borne influenza and that has health officials around the world worried.
The current virus mixes an existing triple combination of human, avian and swine influenza identified in 1998 with two new swine virus genes from Asia and Europe, both of human origin.
Because of its novelty, humans are unlikely to have any immunity to it. The current seasonal flu vaccine targets a different H1N1 strain and isn't likely to offer any protection.
Indeed, according to a report in Recombinomics, March 24, 2009, the failure rate of the H1N1 virus seen in Rapid City, South Dakota was as much as 50% among those vaccinated for influenza. It's not clear whether those new virus cases, as the instant virus was only sent for classification in mid-March.
"The genetics are quite complicated," says Dr. John McCauley of London's National Institute for Medical Research. "It has been mixing up all over the place."
Dr. Robert Webster at St Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis calls it "...a real super-mixed-up virus," adding, "where the hell it got all these genes from we don't know."
So far, 149 people have died in Mexico, with 1,600 suspected cases. 40 cases have been confirmed in the United States, as well in Spain, Canada and the U.K.
Health experts contend that the virus is treatable with the influenza drugs oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza).
Late today, the WHO raised its pandemic threat from phase 3 to phase 4, suggesting "sustained human-to-human transmission," Phases 5 & 6 represent a full-blown pandemic.
"The scary thing is that this virus seems enormously transmissible," says Dr. Webster.
Dr. McCauley adds, "For me this is the time to start deploying national pandemic plans — we need to act now."
"Very Aggressive" Dengue Fever Outbreak in Mexico
From El Universal and other sources
Culiacán, Sinaloa, Mexico. 24 April 2009
10:20
200 confirmed cases of an extremely aggressive strain of dengue virus have been reported since January in Mexico's Pacific coast state of Sinaloa. The new strain has prompted that state's Secretary of Health to issue a warning to residents to take precautions to reduce its potential spread, by eliminating standing water where mosquitoes breed. Sinaloa encompasses the resort town of Mazatlan.
Secretary Héctor Ponce Ramos, indicated that this year's strain of dengue fever is more lethal than in previous years and may be based on DENV-3 AND DENV-4 strains of the disease, which in theory would yield very deadly results and has only rarely been seen before.
From the CDC:
"Dengue (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) are caused by one of four closely related, but antigenically distinct, virus serotypes (DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3, and DEN-4), of the genus Flavivirus. Infection with one of these serotypes provides immunity to only that serotype for life, so persons living in a dengue-endemic area can have more than one dengue infection during their lifetime. DF and DHF are primarily diseases of tropical and sub tropical areas, and the four different dengue serotypes are maintained in a cycle that involves humans and the Aedes mosquito. However, Aedes aegypti, a domestic, day-biting mosquito that prefers to feed on humans, is the most common Aedes species. Infections produce a spectrum of clinical illness ranging from a nonspecific viral syndrome to severe and fatal hemorrhagic disease. Important risk factors for DHF include the strain of the infecting virus, as well as the age, and especially the prior dengue infection history of the patient."
More From the CDC:
"The emergence of dengue/DHF as a major public health problem has been most dramatic in the American region. In an effort to prevent urban yellow fever, which is also transmitted by Ae. aegypti, the Pan American Health Organization started a campaign that eradicated Ae. aegypti from most Central and South American countries in the 1950s and 1960s. As a result, epidemic dengue occurred only sporadically in some Caribbean islands during this period. The Ae. aegypti eradication program, which was officially discontinued in the United States in 1970, gradually weakened elsewhere, and the mosquito began to reinfest countries from which it had been eradicated. As a result, the geographic distribution of Ae. aegypti in 2002 was much wider than that before the eradication program."
Reinfestation by Aedes aegypti in the Americas: 1970 to 2002
Mr. Ponce said this new strain is more deadly than dengue fever or dengue hemorrhagic fever which the state had experienced in the past. The virus is so severe, patients are said to quickly go into shock (dengue shock syndrome) which usually leads quickly to death. Dengue shock syndrome is defined as dengue hemorrhagic fever with weak rapid pulse, narrow pulse pressure (less than 20 mm Hg) and cold, clammy skin and restlessness.
So far, Sinaloa has had no registered case of the current swine flu affecting other parts of the country.
Medical experts say that it is possible to contract both diseases and the results would be very unfortunate.
Culiacán, Sinaloa, Mexico. 24 April 2009
10:20
200 confirmed cases of an extremely aggressive strain of dengue virus have been reported since January in Mexico's Pacific coast state of Sinaloa. The new strain has prompted that state's Secretary of Health to issue a warning to residents to take precautions to reduce its potential spread, by eliminating standing water where mosquitoes breed. Sinaloa encompasses the resort town of Mazatlan.
Secretary Héctor Ponce Ramos, indicated that this year's strain of dengue fever is more lethal than in previous years and may be based on DENV-3 AND DENV-4 strains of the disease, which in theory would yield very deadly results and has only rarely been seen before.
From the CDC:
"Dengue (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) are caused by one of four closely related, but antigenically distinct, virus serotypes (DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3, and DEN-4), of the genus Flavivirus. Infection with one of these serotypes provides immunity to only that serotype for life, so persons living in a dengue-endemic area can have more than one dengue infection during their lifetime. DF and DHF are primarily diseases of tropical and sub tropical areas, and the four different dengue serotypes are maintained in a cycle that involves humans and the Aedes mosquito. However, Aedes aegypti, a domestic, day-biting mosquito that prefers to feed on humans, is the most common Aedes species. Infections produce a spectrum of clinical illness ranging from a nonspecific viral syndrome to severe and fatal hemorrhagic disease. Important risk factors for DHF include the strain of the infecting virus, as well as the age, and especially the prior dengue infection history of the patient."
More From the CDC:
"The emergence of dengue/DHF as a major public health problem has been most dramatic in the American region. In an effort to prevent urban yellow fever, which is also transmitted by Ae. aegypti, the Pan American Health Organization started a campaign that eradicated Ae. aegypti from most Central and South American countries in the 1950s and 1960s. As a result, epidemic dengue occurred only sporadically in some Caribbean islands during this period. The Ae. aegypti eradication program, which was officially discontinued in the United States in 1970, gradually weakened elsewhere, and the mosquito began to reinfest countries from which it had been eradicated. As a result, the geographic distribution of Ae. aegypti in 2002 was much wider than that before the eradication program."
Reinfestation by Aedes aegypti in the Americas: 1970 to 2002
Mr. Ponce said this new strain is more deadly than dengue fever or dengue hemorrhagic fever which the state had experienced in the past. The virus is so severe, patients are said to quickly go into shock (dengue shock syndrome) which usually leads quickly to death. Dengue shock syndrome is defined as dengue hemorrhagic fever with weak rapid pulse, narrow pulse pressure (less than 20 mm Hg) and cold, clammy skin and restlessness.
So far, Sinaloa has had no registered case of the current swine flu affecting other parts of the country.
Medical experts say that it is possible to contract both diseases and the results would be very unfortunate.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
24-hours in Mexico City: 298 likely New Swine Flu Cases, 5 deaths
El Universal
Mexico City, DF, Sunday 26 April 2009
08:50
Health officials report that 5,289 patients treated at Mexico City health centers were found to have acute respiratory infection and that 298 cases were suspected to be swine flu. 25 people were hospitalized with severe symptoms. This according to Armando Ahued Ortega, Mexico City's Secretary of Health.
According to Marcelo Ebrard Casaubón, Head of Mexico City's governing body said that 73 people were currently hospitalized with swine flu in the Federal District. What's more, he revealed that 5 additional patients had died in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number of deaths likely due to swine flu to 15 in Mexico City alone.
Greater Mexico City is one of the largest metropolitan areas in the world with some 22 million inhabitants as of 2007, according to the United Nations.
Mr. Ebrard also enumerated other measures the city government was taking in order to slow the spread of the flu, including: closing judicial courts as well as the city's parks and zoos. The Head of Government said he had met with leaders of Mexico City's largest employers and had asked them to reduce their activities, i.e., meetings, etc., short of bringing all business to a halt.
Mexico City, DF, Sunday 26 April 2009
08:50
Health officials report that 5,289 patients treated at Mexico City health centers were found to have acute respiratory infection and that 298 cases were suspected to be swine flu. 25 people were hospitalized with severe symptoms. This according to Armando Ahued Ortega, Mexico City's Secretary of Health.
According to Marcelo Ebrard Casaubón, Head of Mexico City's governing body said that 73 people were currently hospitalized with swine flu in the Federal District. What's more, he revealed that 5 additional patients had died in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number of deaths likely due to swine flu to 15 in Mexico City alone.
Greater Mexico City is one of the largest metropolitan areas in the world with some 22 million inhabitants as of 2007, according to the United Nations.
Mr. Ebrard also enumerated other measures the city government was taking in order to slow the spread of the flu, including: closing judicial courts as well as the city's parks and zoos. The Head of Government said he had met with leaders of Mexico City's largest employers and had asked them to reduce their activities, i.e., meetings, etc., short of bringing all business to a halt.
All Education Shut Down in Mexico for 10 Days
Mexico City, April 26, 2009 from ElUniversal.com.mx
Mexico's Secretary of Health has ordered all public and private education institutions at all levels shut until May 6, in order to slow down the spread of the Mexican swine flu.
Mexico has been hit extremely hard by the outbreak, with 81 deaths from flu-like symptoms and 20 confirmed cases. Mexico City alone has 15 confirmed deaths as of 8:50 this morning.
Developing...
Mexico's Secretary of Health has ordered all public and private education institutions at all levels shut until May 6, in order to slow down the spread of the Mexican swine flu.
Mexico has been hit extremely hard by the outbreak, with 81 deaths from flu-like symptoms and 20 confirmed cases. Mexico City alone has 15 confirmed deaths as of 8:50 this morning.
Developing...
Tamiflu Resistant H1N1 Vaccine Failures Raise Concerns
From: Recombinomics Commentary 16:53
March 24, 2009
Excerpt:
"Deb Brandt, a physician assistant at Rapid City Medical Center's Urgent Care, said that on Wednesday, the clinic checked in 106 people in 11 hours. There were cases of strep, mono and plenty of influenza. Three other Rapid City clinics report a similarly busy schedule.
"Brandt said about half of her patients who tested positive for influenza had their shots, but "most of the flu shots were early."
"The above comments suggest that 50% of the flu patients in the Rapid City area served by the medical center had been vaccinated this season, and the vaccine failed to prevent infection. This figure is alarming, since the vaccination rate of the population is likely much lower than 100%, so the failure rate in those receiving the vaccine would be much higher than 50%.
The article suggested that the high failure rate was due a reduction in antibody levels in vaccinated patients, but vaccines fail because the circulating virus evolves away from the vaccine strain."
And:
"Reports from Taiwan also indicated that vaccines failed in 70% of the H1N1 cases and Tamiflu resistant H1N1 dominated in collections after December, 2008.
Although vaccine failures in H1N1 have not been discussed in weekly reports from the CDC, a disclaimer was added in 2009, noting that cross reactivity with ferret reference sera was not always predictive of vaccine protection. This disclaimer came after failures had been reported in Asia."
More here: Tamiflu Resistant H1N1 Vaccine Failures Raise Concerns
March 24, 2009
Excerpt:
"Deb Brandt, a physician assistant at Rapid City Medical Center's Urgent Care, said that on Wednesday, the clinic checked in 106 people in 11 hours. There were cases of strep, mono and plenty of influenza. Three other Rapid City clinics report a similarly busy schedule.
"Brandt said about half of her patients who tested positive for influenza had their shots, but "most of the flu shots were early."
"The above comments suggest that 50% of the flu patients in the Rapid City area served by the medical center had been vaccinated this season, and the vaccine failed to prevent infection. This figure is alarming, since the vaccination rate of the population is likely much lower than 100%, so the failure rate in those receiving the vaccine would be much higher than 50%.
The article suggested that the high failure rate was due a reduction in antibody levels in vaccinated patients, but vaccines fail because the circulating virus evolves away from the vaccine strain."
And:
"Reports from Taiwan also indicated that vaccines failed in 70% of the H1N1 cases and Tamiflu resistant H1N1 dominated in collections after December, 2008.
Although vaccine failures in H1N1 have not been discussed in weekly reports from the CDC, a disclaimer was added in 2009, noting that cross reactivity with ferret reference sera was not always predictive of vaccine protection. This disclaimer came after failures had been reported in Asia."
More here: Tamiflu Resistant H1N1 Vaccine Failures Raise Concerns
Influenza Potential as Bio Weapon: Pandemic Transmission
Excerpt from CDC on transmission:
"In contrast, the situation with a pandemic strain of influenza A (H5) would become only too clear because
no one would have any degree of immunity against such a virus, vaccines would not be available for months, and these viruses would likely be highly virulent. Even though efficient human-to-human transmission of the A (H5N1) virus has not yet been observed (by any mode), transmission of influenza A (H5N1) by aerosols from geese to quails has been demonstrated in the laboratory."
"In principle, influenza viruses can be transmitted by 3 routes: aerosols, large droplets, and direct contact with secretions (or with fomites). These 3 routes are not mutually exclusive and, as noted above, may be difficult to disentangle in natural infections."
Review of Aerosol Transmission of Influenza A Virus
Tellier R. Review of aerosol transmission of influenza A virus. Emerg Infect Dis [serial on the Internet]. 2006 Nov [date cited]. Available from http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no11/06-0426.htm"
"In contrast, the situation with a pandemic strain of influenza A (H5) would become only too clear because
no one would have any degree of immunity against such a virus, vaccines would not be available for months, and these viruses would likely be highly virulent. Even though efficient human-to-human transmission of the A (H5N1) virus has not yet been observed (by any mode), transmission of influenza A (H5N1) by aerosols from geese to quails has been demonstrated in the laboratory."
"In principle, influenza viruses can be transmitted by 3 routes: aerosols, large droplets, and direct contact with secretions (or with fomites). These 3 routes are not mutually exclusive and, as noted above, may be difficult to disentangle in natural infections."
Review of Aerosol Transmission of Influenza A Virus
Tellier R. Review of aerosol transmission of influenza A virus. Emerg Infect Dis [serial on the Internet]. 2006 Nov [date cited]. Available from http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no11/06-0426.htm"
Influenza as Bioweapon: Difficult to Counter
Although the CDC has not explained whether the current swine flu outbreak in
1) Terrorists can prepare a vaccine to protect themselves and their host populations in advance of its release.
2) Influenza is airborne, it is transmitted through either solid or lipid aerosol, therefore it’s easy to spread.
3) There is a normal period of incubation during which time the carrier displays no symptoms, but can infect others. Therefore, dispersion is very efficient. The virus can spread out to a wide geographic area in a short period of time.
4) It’s difficult to trace. The genome of a human-engineered strain of influenza can be manipulated by its “author” to make it very hard to find the original source.
5) An influenza virus can be easily engineered by any competent scientist with a virology or molecular biology background.
6) The virus stock or components of influenza are widely available.
7) Any lab with standard equipment can generate ample quantities to infect key populations. Only small quantities of the virus are needed because it is highly contagious.
It is important to note that DHS is not treating the current outbreak as a bioterrorist incident, in fact a search of their website today, April 25, 2009, found no reference to the current swine flu outbreak.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Possibility of Bio-Terrorism in Swine Flu Outbreak
In a discussion this morning with a cell biologist and medical doctor working at Johns Hopkins, my friend thought this 4-part flu combination is highly unusual and looks like it could be man-made. Especially because it has an avian strain. My doctor friend (he's Taiwanese) explained that in Asia, it's common for a avian-swine-human flu to happen naturally, but this virus first showed up in Mexico, where pigs and ducks are not usually raised together. Also, recombination of more than 2-different flu viruses is extremely rare. I'm just repeating what he said as an expert in the field. He says the CDC needs to explain if there is a possibility that we are under a bio-weapon attack.
From CDC via Wikipedia: Anne Schuchat, director of CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said that the American cases were found to be made up of genetic elements from four different flu viruses -- North American swine influenza, North American avian influenza, human influenza A virus subtype H1N1, and swine influenza virus typically found in Asia and Europe. For two cases a complete genome sequence had been obtained. She said that the virus was resistant to amantadine and rimantadine, but susceptible to oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza).[22][23][24] Preliminary genetic characterization found that the hemagglutinin (HA) gene was similar to that of swine flu viruses present in U.S. pigs since 1999, but the neuraminidase (NA) and matrix protein (M) genes resembled versions present in European swine flu isolates. Viruses with this genetic makeup had not previously been found to be circulating in humans or pigs, but there is no formal national surveillance system to determine what viruses are circulating in pigs in the U.S.[25] The seasonal influenza strain H1N1 vaccine is thought to be unlikely to provide protection.[26]
Here’s more from AP via Seattle Post Intelligencer: http://www.seattlepi.com/health/1500ap_med_swine_flu.html?source=rss
The worrisome new virus - which combines genetic material from pigs, birds and humans in a way researchers have not seen before - also sickened at least eight people in Texas and California, though there have been no deaths in the U.S.
“We are very, very concerned,” World Health Organization spokesman Thomas Abraham said. “We have what appears to be a novel virus and it has spread from human to human ... It’s all hands on deck at the moment.”
Update: doctor friend also says that what is also unusual is that this type/combination virus is the based on the same strain as in the 1918 Spanish flu virus (H1N1) outbreak (extremely deadly, 25 million dead in 25 weeks; total dead 50-100 million dead; 2.5%-5% of the world population). This makes the virus extremely deadly. The likelihood that this combination with the most deadly strain would happen naturally is very, very low.
From Reuters via Los Angeles Times: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-mexico-flu-box25-2009apr25,0,5114253.story
The CDC has analyzed samples of the H1N1 virus from some of the U.S. patients, all of whom have recovered, and said it is a never-before-seen mixture of viruses from swine, birds and humans.
Not really, the creators may be betting that this highly deadly strain further mutates. According to my Doctor source from JHU, it is not necessary to do it in the lab, when nature gets hold of it the virus evolves on its own, it can become very deadly. According to, the natural mutation rate of Influenza virus is 1.5 *10^(-5) per nucleotide per infectious cycle (each individual replication within the cell). That means each of the millions of cells in one body that becomes infected will be mutated at a rate of 1.5 *10^(-5) (10^(-5) = 1.5/10,000) From the Journal of Virology: http://jvi.asm.org/cgi/content/abstract/59/2/377
More from Reuters: (CDC acting director Dr. Richard Besser) Besser said the CDC is being “very aggressive” said it was time for people in the United States to think about what to do if this does turn out to be a pandemic.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE53O0MW20090425
More info also from Wikipedia, but certified by my doctor (JHU) friend:
"H1N1 is a subtype of the species Influenza A virus. H1N1 has mutated into various strains including the Spanish Flu strain (now extinct in the wild), mild human flu strains, endemic pig strains, and various strains found in birds.
A variant of H1N1 was responsible for the Spanish flu pandemic that killed some 50 million to 100 million people worldwide over about a year in 1918 and 1919.[1] A different variant exists in pig populations.
Controversy arose in October 2005, after the H1N1 genome was published in the journal Science. Many[who?] fear that this information could be used for bioterrorism. [citation needed]
"When he compared the 1918 virus with today's human flu viruses, Dr. Taubenberger noticed that it had alterations in just 25 to 30 of the virus's 4,400 amino acids. Those few changes turned a bird virus into a killer that could spread from person to person."[2]
Low pathogenic H1N1 strains still exist in the wild today, causing roughly half of all flu infections in 2006.[3]
Since mid-March 2009, over 500 cases, including at least 68 deaths, have been reported in Mexico from an outbreak a new strain of H1N1.[4][5][6]
At least some of these cases result from the same strain of H1N1 that was isolated in 9 US patients in California and Texas.[7]"
General influenza mortality rate is 0.1%, that means this is 20 times more deadly (2.0%), that's really bad. If the virus mutates in the general population, the mortality rate will likely increase. (It can mutate to become less deadly, but nobody would notice, we can hope, but that's not a strategy to combat infectious diseases.) The 1918 influenza virus mortality rate was 2%-20%.)
If one million people get the virus, 20,000 dead, at current rates.
Mutation is neutral, that means that 50% will be more deadly and 50% less deadly, but at a mutation rate of 1.5/10,000 per per nucleotide per infectious cycle, 50% of these mutation will be more deadly. And, since this virus has already mutated to become extremely deadly (i.e., 1918), the possibility of this super, possibly human-engineered, 4-virus combination (strain) to become extremely deadly again is greater than 0. How much greater, we don’t know with current information.
From CDC via Wikipedia: Anne Schuchat, director of CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said that the American cases were found to be made up of genetic elements from four different flu viruses -- North American swine influenza, North American avian influenza, human influenza A virus subtype H1N1, and swine influenza virus typically found in Asia and Europe. For two cases a complete genome sequence had been obtained. She said that the virus was resistant to amantadine and rimantadine, but susceptible to oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza).[22][23][24] Preliminary genetic characterization found that the hemagglutinin (HA) gene was similar to that of swine flu viruses present in U.S. pigs since 1999, but the neuraminidase (NA) and matrix protein (M) genes resembled versions present in European swine flu isolates. Viruses with this genetic makeup had not previously been found to be circulating in humans or pigs, but there is no formal national surveillance system to determine what viruses are circulating in pigs in the U.S.[25] The seasonal influenza strain H1N1 vaccine is thought to be unlikely to provide protection.[26]
Here’s more from AP via Seattle Post Intelligencer: http://www.seattlepi.com/health/1500ap_med_swine_flu.html?source=rss
The worrisome new virus - which combines genetic material from pigs, birds and humans in a way researchers have not seen before - also sickened at least eight people in Texas and California, though there have been no deaths in the U.S.
“We are very, very concerned,” World Health Organization spokesman Thomas Abraham said. “We have what appears to be a novel virus and it has spread from human to human ... It’s all hands on deck at the moment.”
Update: doctor friend also says that what is also unusual is that this type/combination virus is the based on the same strain as in the 1918 Spanish flu virus (H1N1) outbreak (extremely deadly, 25 million dead in 25 weeks; total dead 50-100 million dead; 2.5%-5% of the world population). This makes the virus extremely deadly. The likelihood that this combination with the most deadly strain would happen naturally is very, very low.
From Reuters via Los Angeles Times: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-mexico-flu-box25-2009apr25,0,5114253.story
The CDC has analyzed samples of the H1N1 virus from some of the U.S. patients, all of whom have recovered, and said it is a never-before-seen mixture of viruses from swine, birds and humans.
Not really, the creators may be betting that this highly deadly strain further mutates. According to my Doctor source from JHU, it is not necessary to do it in the lab, when nature gets hold of it the virus evolves on its own, it can become very deadly. According to, the natural mutation rate of Influenza virus is 1.5 *10^(-5) per nucleotide per infectious cycle (each individual replication within the cell). That means each of the millions of cells in one body that becomes infected will be mutated at a rate of 1.5 *10^(-5) (10^(-5) = 1.5/10,000) From the Journal of Virology: http://jvi.asm.org/cgi/content/abstract/59/2/377
More from Reuters: (CDC acting director Dr. Richard Besser) Besser said the CDC is being “very aggressive” said it was time for people in the United States to think about what to do if this does turn out to be a pandemic.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE53O0MW20090425
More info also from Wikipedia, but certified by my doctor (JHU) friend:
"H1N1 is a subtype of the species Influenza A virus. H1N1 has mutated into various strains including the Spanish Flu strain (now extinct in the wild), mild human flu strains, endemic pig strains, and various strains found in birds.
A variant of H1N1 was responsible for the Spanish flu pandemic that killed some 50 million to 100 million people worldwide over about a year in 1918 and 1919.[1] A different variant exists in pig populations.
Controversy arose in October 2005, after the H1N1 genome was published in the journal Science. Many[who?] fear that this information could be used for bioterrorism. [citation needed]
"When he compared the 1918 virus with today's human flu viruses, Dr. Taubenberger noticed that it had alterations in just 25 to 30 of the virus's 4,400 amino acids. Those few changes turned a bird virus into a killer that could spread from person to person."[2]
Low pathogenic H1N1 strains still exist in the wild today, causing roughly half of all flu infections in 2006.[3]
Since mid-March 2009, over 500 cases, including at least 68 deaths, have been reported in Mexico from an outbreak a new strain of H1N1.[4][5][6]
At least some of these cases result from the same strain of H1N1 that was isolated in 9 US patients in California and Texas.[7]"
General influenza mortality rate is 0.1%, that means this is 20 times more deadly (2.0%), that's really bad. If the virus mutates in the general population, the mortality rate will likely increase. (It can mutate to become less deadly, but nobody would notice, we can hope, but that's not a strategy to combat infectious diseases.) The 1918 influenza virus mortality rate was 2%-20%.)
If one million people get the virus, 20,000 dead, at current rates.
Mutation is neutral, that means that 50% will be more deadly and 50% less deadly, but at a mutation rate of 1.5/10,000 per per nucleotide per infectious cycle, 50% of these mutation will be more deadly. And, since this virus has already mutated to become extremely deadly (i.e., 1918), the possibility of this super, possibly human-engineered, 4-virus combination (strain) to become extremely deadly again is greater than 0. How much greater, we don’t know with current information.
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